Decoding the Political Shift in Odisha: Naveen Patnaik’s Reign and BJP’s Rise

In a dramatic turn of events, Odisha witnessed a seismic shift in its political landscape as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged victorious, ending the two-decade-long reign of Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD). This shift, marked by the BJP’s overwhelming victory in both assembly and Lok Sabha elections, left many pondering the reasons behind Patnaik’s downfall and the BJP’s ascendancy.

Naveen Patnaik: A Political Titan’s Fall

Naveen Patnaik, born in Odisha’s Cuttack, spent most of his life in the high society of Lutyens’ Delhi, inheriting a legacy of political prominence from his father, Biju Patnaik. However, after his father’s demise in 1997, Naveen Patnaik returned to Odisha and ascended to power as its chief minister, a position he held for over 24 years. Despite his initial stronghold, the 2024 elections dealt a severe blow to his legacy, falling short by a mere 73 days of surpassing Pawan Chamling as India’s longest-serving chief minister.

Factors Contributing to BJD’s Downfall

1. Outsider Sentiment and VK Pandian

A significant reason behind the BJD’s downfall was the growing anti-outsider sentiment, primarily directed at VK Pandian, Naveen Patnaik’s trusted aide and private secretary. Hailing from Tamil Nadu, Pandian’s considerable influence within the BJD and the state’s administrative machinery stirred resentment among the Odia populace. The perception of an “outsider” orchestrating the government’s affairs fueled discontent, which the BJP capitalized on, portraying the BJD as a puppet regime.

2. Modi-Shah Factor and Odia Asmita

The BJP’s campaign strategy heavily relied on leveraging Odia Asmita, emphasizing Odisha’s pride and urging voters to reclaim their state from what they portrayed as a disconnected regime. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah spearheaded this narrative, resonating deeply with voters, especially in regions historically dominated by the BJD.

3. Naveen Patnaik’s Diminished Visibility

Unlike previous elections, Naveen Patnaik’s reduced presence on the campaign trail significantly impacted the BJD’s outreach. Accompanied by VK Pandian in most rallies, Patnaik’s absence left the campaign lackluster and less compelling. In contrast, the BJP’s aggressive campaigning, featuring prominent leaders like Modi, Shah, Rajnath Singh, and others, overshadowed the BJD’s efforts.

4. Tactical Missteps and Lack of Succession Planning

The BJD’s strategy of tacitly supporting the BJP at the national level backfired, blurring the lines between ally and opponent and eroding the party’s distinct identity. Additionally, the absence of a clear succession plan for Naveen Patnaik created uncertainty and diminished voter confidence. Rumors surrounding Patnaik’s health further fueled the BJP’s narrative, with Modi hinting at possible conspiracies.

5. Dharmendra Pradhan’s Campaign in Western Odisha

The BJP’s strategic focus on Western Odisha, perceived as neglected, played a pivotal role in their victory. Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan’s vigorous campaign in the region, promising development and upliftment, provided voters with a compelling alternative to Patnaik’s leadership.

6. Overconfidence and the “400 Paar” Parallel

The BJD’s overconfidence, reflected in their claims of a comfortable victory, mirrored the NDA’s “400 paar” claim, leading to complacency within the party. This overconfidence contrasted sharply with the BJP’s relentless campaign, resulting in a decisive victory.

Conclusion

The 2024 elections in Odisha witnessed a historic political upheaval, with the BJP dethroning the long-standing BJD regime. Naveen Patnaik’s diminished visibility, coupled with tactical missteps and the BJP’s strategic campaign, led to his downfall. As Odisha navigates this new political landscape, the repercussions of this shift are bound to shape the state’s future trajectory.